I am an Assistant Professor at the New Economic School in Moscow (the top school in Russia for economics and currently ranked in the top 200 in the world in terms of research). I hold a Ph.D. from UC Davis, ranked 3rd in the world in International Trade among academic institutions, and ranked 9th in Economic History (or 6th). I am a member of the Replication Network, and am committed to making replication and robustness a norm in academia.
E-mail: dolcampb at gmail dot com ; Twitter: @TradeandMoney ; Blog: http://douglaslcampbell.blogspot.ru/
Research Interests: International Trade, Open-Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Growth and Development, Economic History, Applied Micro
The Local Labor Market Impact of Exchange Rate Movements. With Marco Gonzalez-Navarro, In progress.
Breaking Badly: The Currency Union Effect on Trade with Aleksandr Chentsov, June 2017. Under Review.
The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Manufacturing Workers: An Autopsy from the MORG with Lester Lusher, Dec., 2016. R&R Journal of International Money and Finance. (This is narrower version of "Trade Shocks, Taxes, and Inequality".) Bullet Point Highlights.
Media: Econbrowser Guest Contribution.
Trade Shocks, Taxes, and Inequality with Lester Lusher, Sept., 2016. May 2016 version.
Media: Short VoxEU version. Blogs: Economist's View. Naked Keynesianism. Tax Justice Network.
Data: Historical Top Marginal Tax Rates Database, In Excel form.
New Estimates of Offshoring: Intermediate Imports.dta (ASM NAICS, 1989-2010, in Stata v14), Bilateral Version.dta (ASM NAICS X ASM NAICS, Stata 14), Raw Data. SIC version (1972-2003). Bilateral SIC Version. Intermediate Input Data Appendix. Read Me.
CPS MORG Data: (email me -- large file).
ASM Data: Here.
Crosswalk Data: Master Crosswalk File (all 23 crosswalks for this project).
TAs Like Me: Racial Interactions between Graduate Teaching Assistants and Undergraduates, June, 2017, with Lester Lusher and Scott Carrell. Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Public Economics. Sept., 2015 version. Ungated NBER Working Paper version.
Media: Slate. Inside Higher-Ed. Washington Examiner. Diversity Inc. Daily Illini.
Relative Prices, Hysteresis, and the Decline of American Manufacturing, August, 2016. (R&R, JIE; previously R&R at AEJ: Applied). Appendix: Response to Previous Referees Reports. Previous versions: Sept., 2015 ; July, 2015 ; Dec., 2014 ; April, 2014 Version. JMP version from 2013. Additional Appendix (old).
Media: VoxEU version (link to be fixed by VoxEU, here's a word version). The Economist (Ryan Avent). Equitablog. Naked Capitalism. Guest post for Econbrowser, "The Cause of Secular Stagnation? Relative Prices, Trade, and the People’s Republic of China”. Paper also cited again in The Economist.
Awards: This paper won the Wim Meeusen Prize, awarded annually to the best paper presented at the "Economics of Global Interactions" conference in Bari, Italy.
Data: Code, and Data (dropbox). MFA/ATC Crosswalk (bridge to HS crosswalk, available here), IO NAICs to NAICs Crosswalk
History, Culture, and Trade: A Dynamic Gravity Approach. August 2010.
The line: trade costs determine relative prices, relative prices determine production and consumption baskets, and both of these are persistent. Hence, trade costs play a role in cultural formation and which contributes to persistence in trade. Thus history matters for trade. Interesting fact: Bilateral trade shares in 1870 can predict trade shares in 2000, even while controlling for the standard gravity arguments such as GDP, geographic variables, etc.
Measurement Matters: Productivity-Adjusted Weighted Average Relative Price Indices Journal of International Money and Finance, 2016 vol. 61(C), pages 45-81. (Online published version, accessible until Feb. 6, 2015). Bullet point highlights. Previous version, circulated as: "Through the Looking Glass: A WARPed View of Real Exchange Rate History" from August 2015. Appendix: Old Referee Reports. Version from November, 2014. Even older Version.
Media: VoxEU synopsis. Blog post by Ryan Avent in The Economist. Equitablog. Naked Capitalism.
Data: WAR RER Indices, v2.1a (154 countries, using PWT v8.1, July 2015; Excel format v2.1a). v2.1a Description. .do file for computing trade weights from IMF DOTS (DOTS data).
RER Indices, v2.0 (157 countries, using PWT v8.1, July 2015). v2.0 Description.
RER Indices, v1.0 (based on PWT v8.0, 2014) (stata 11 format, excel 2010 format).
Comments on Related Research:Comment on Synthetic International Indexed Unit of Account.
Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade: Solving the Glick and Rose Puzzle. World Economy, 36: 1278-1293, 2013.
The line: The early large time series estimates of currency unions on trade were driven by omitted variables including warfare and communist takeovers, and are not robust to controlling for dynamics as per my 'Dynamic Gravity Theory' below. Countries considering joining the Euro should not expect any large impact on trade. Citation in Bibtex. Previous, ungated draft, Dec. 2012. Slides here. Short version. Earlier Draft from Feb., 2012. (Note: Repec ranks World Economy 71st by citations in the past 10 years.)
Media: Blogged at Economic Logic here.
Data: Code here and data here.
The Diffusion of Development: Along Genetic or Geographic Lines? 2015, Journal of International Development. (Gated version.) With Ju Hyun Pyun
The line: Climatic distance to the US predicts development, genetic distance does not. Version from August, 2014. 2013 Version. Web Appendix. Under Review. Previous Version. Dec., 2011.
Media: Andrew Gelman's blog. (Listed as a "Must-Read" by Brad DeLong at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth)
Data: Data here and code here (previous code).
Short, Non-Peer Reviewed Articles:
Guest Contribution: The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Manufacturing Workers: An Autopsy from the MORG, Econbrowser, January 6, 2017.
Is the AER Replicable? And is it Robust? Evidence from a Class Project, The Replication Network, December 27th, 2016.
Driver's of Inequality: Trade Shocks vs. Top Marginal Tax Rates, VoxEU, Sep. 8, 2016.
A Replication in Economics: Does "Genetic Distance" to the US Predict Development?, Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science (Andrew Gelman's Blog), Dec. 19th, 2015.
Правда ли, что чем южнее регионы и страны, тем они беднее и неблагополучнее? June 25th, 2015. For the webpage "The Question", I answer "Is it true that southern regions and countries are poor and undeveloped? (warning: it's in Russian/порусский).
The Cause of Secular Stagnation? Relative Prices, Trade, and the People’s Republic of China. Econbrowser Guest post, August 14th, 2014.
Output vs. Trade Costs in the Great Depression and Today, 9/2009 written with David Jacks, Chris Meissner, and Dennis Novy on the dramatic decline in trade during the Great Recession for VoxEU. VoxEU profile here.
Talk for Democrats Abroad in Moscow: The Election 2016 Economic Policy Threesome: Inequality, Trade, and Money, 3/24/2016.
Collapse: The Local Economic Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Movements
Abstract: At the height of American manufacturing, in 1979, Indiana had a per-capita GDP close to that of New York, and a substantially higher income than any southern state. From 1979-1986, employment growth in Indiana
substantially lagged employment growth of the economy overall, and Indiana had become much poorer than New
York while several southern states had closed the gap. Why? I argue that Indiana's misfortune to be the most specialized state in terms of import-competing manufacturing led to declining fortunes when the US real exchange rate appreciated in the mid-1980s. Studying the period 1977-2008, I find that local labor markets specialized in tradable manufacturing goods and agriculture experienced declines in employment and income per capita, and a decline in birth rates and an increase in death rates triggered by the out-migration of the young when the real exchange rate appreciated. Once the dollar returned to previous levels, the hardest-hit communities and states never recovered.
Bretton Woods II, Relative Prices, and the Anatomy of Balance-Sheet Recessions: A Rethink
Abstract: The combination of capital controls and foreign currency accumulation is generally thought to be harmless or even beneficial to trading partners whose currency is being accumulated. Using a New Keynesian model similar to Krugman and Eggertson (2012), I show that currency overvaluation can lead to both trade imbalances and the overaccumulation of debt, which may increase the likelihood of balance sheet recessions, financial crises and liquidity traps. In addition, having trading partners who use capital controls to undervalue their currencies can subtract directly from aggregate demand if monetary authorities cannot or will not offset the impact with looser policy, either due to the liquidity trap or due to unfamiliarity with non-traditional tools of monetary policy at the zero lower bound. Currency overvaluation can slow the process of deleveraging in a liquidity trap. Lastly, the impact of currency overvaluation due to trading partner capital controls are likely to be exacerbated when the tradable sector exhibits hysteresis. When trading partners are unwilling to revalue their currencies, a second-best monetary policy would seek to tax foreign currency accumulation via a higher inflation target.
Monetary Policy at the Zero-Lower Bound: Self-Induced Paralysis?
Abstract: This study investigates the frequency of central bank policy innovations as a function of surprises in Macroeconomic time series data including inflation, output, and unemployment, and as a function of uncertainty over the effectiveness of policy due to the zero lower bound. In the 1920s and from 1955 to 2008, there was never a two-year period when the Federal Reserve did not alter the Federal Funds rate. By contrast, from the end of 2008 to the end of 2010, and during long stretches of the Great Depression, the federal funds rate was constant while changes in the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet were modest. This is especially noteworthy in light of the repeated large downward revisions to the Federal Reserve's growth and inflation forecasts since 2008. Similar trends are found in Japan and Europe during the Great Depression period and today. This paper documents that in practice, when central banks operate near the zero lower bound, policy becomes systematically more passive in response to data surprises. A quantitative keyword analysis of central bank minutes and speeches conducted in local languages suggests a large role for policy uncertainty, unfamiliarity with non-traditional monetary tools, and status-quo bias.
Why Isn't the Whole World Developed? Evidence from Similarity in Soil Suitability. The line: Combining a human capital-augmented Malthusian growth model with the insights of Kamarck/Crosby/Diamond can potentially explain a large fraction of comparative development, including why latitude and income are so highly correlated.
International Economics Syllabus
Links for Students (old):
Money and Banking, 135:
Section Notes 11/13/2012
Section Notes 11/27/2012
Guest Lecture on Rise of China, for POL123. February, 2014.
Employment to Population Ratio, Age 25-64